Electoral models are non-linear and
any minimization (of anomalies) must be done by using iterative numerical
algorithms. Equally, multiple regression analysis and environmental control
variables are vital in electoral calculations and forecasts.
The
following from Wikipedia summarises the former Finance Minister Rama Sithanen’s
background and education : « Dr Sithanen comes from a modest background, due to
poverty he was forced to abandon school to work at an early age. However, later
on, young Rama took back his studies and went to London School of Economics to
read economics and completed a Bsc (Econ) First Class Honours and a Msc (Econ)
with distinction. Later on, during his mandate as Finance minister he obtained
a PhD in Politics at the age of 51, while his thesis was 'An examination of
alternative electoral systems for Mauritius' from Brunel University. »
M Rafic Soormally, Economist
Rama Sithanen should be more properly described as an Economist or an expert in politics (given his PhD is in politics), if there is such an expert as anyone can do politics? Yet, he is not only described in the press as an ‘expert’ on electoral systems simply because he wrote his PhD student thesis on « An examination of alternative electoral systems for Mauritius », but he is also promoting himself as such an expert. This is very misleading, even untrue. A general science student who writes his thesis on nuclear weapons certainly does not make him (or her) an ‘expert’ on uranium enrichment, on the design, manufacture and delivery of nuclear weapons and he cannot go around promoting himself as such. Only fools would listen to such an ‘expert’.
Rama Sithanen’s report is equally littered with flaws which he keeps repeating over several years through media saturation in the hope that Mauritians would be brainwashed in the process.
Former PM
Navin Ramgoolam admitted that Economist Rama Sithanen only wrote his 2012
Electoral Reform piece after taking cognizance of the jurists Sachs &
Carcassonne reports on electoral reform for Mauritius. Therefore, Rama Sithanen
clearly did not produce an inspired piece. In fact, he borrowed several ideas
from Sachs & Carcassonne and copied several of their own serious failings,
rehashed them and produced the worst of all. Even where he criticised
Carcassone for using the Spanish model (p3), he contradicted himself by looking
at the « Outcome of elections in Spain 1979-2011 » and said « The same
phenomenon could very well happen in Mauritius » (pp.12-3).
Dr Ramakrishna Sithanen, Former Finance Minister
1. Rama Sithanen proposed to abolish the BLS.
He later calls that to “deethnicise” the electoral system, a word which does
not exist in the English language.
2. He proposes to “subsume” BLS in party
lists without demonstrating how political parties will identify the candidates
from minority communities. To use his invented term, is he not trying to ‘ethnicise’
party lists? But party leaders tend to recruit candidates who are more likely
to attract votes and more likely to fill their coffers. Although anyone can
join any party, only the leader chooses candidates for elections. Party lists
also tend to be a source of corruption.
3. He misuses the term « ethnic », a term
which refers to non-white minorities in a white-majority country. The white
minority in South Africa, for example, is not referred to as ‘ethnic’.
4. He proposes 20 PR seats in addition to the
62 FPTP seats, but does not demonstrate how he obtained those 20 seats. He
proceeded to measure « unfairness in electoral systems » (p.62) through the use
of the Least Squares Index (LSq) formula which measures the disparity between
the distribution of votes and the allocation of seats, then he goes on to say « What degree of deviation constitutes a
fair Parliament is a matter of judgement » (p.62). He just refers to lots
of data to impress people but with no analytical results emanating from the data
since he is using bias judgement. He
even produced a d’Hondt formula which he applied wrongly by using percentage of
votes (rather than the actual votes) which he divides by the number of seats
(rather than a fixed series of numbers) plus one (p.102). Why plus one?
5. He also proposes, again without
demonstrating how, a 10% of the national vote for any party to be eligible for
PR seats. In other words, he is in favour of large parties and for the
decimation of small parties.
6. Rama
Sithanen is not measuring how minorities can be adequately represented. Nowhere
has he formulated any function for what he set out to measure. For example,
Gross National Product (GNP) = f (monetary and fiscal policies, inflation,
capital spending, imports, exports, error), (ref. Forecasting Methods and
Applications, Third Edition, by Spyros Makridakis, Steven Wheelwright & Rob
Hyndman, p.54). His thinking is not only linear but inaccurate and misleading.
Electoral models are non-linear and any minimization (of anomalies) must be
done by using iterative numerical algorithms which he has not used. He has not
identified either the dependent or the independent variable in each case. He
has not used multiple regression analysis nor used environmental control
variables which are vital in electoral calculations and forecasts. He is
grossly misleading the Mauritian people.
In a process
of ‘sithanenising’ the electoral system, Rama Sithanen is being given so much
media coverage even when he admits that what he is proposing is « not devoid of
flaws », to the horror of right-thinking Mauritians. Critics argue that
Sithanen is targeting mainly the Muslim minority, which makes up around 18% of
the population.
BLS – a Minority Protection System
No wonder
Sithanen finds favour with the anti-BLS political party Rezistans ek
Alternativ, led by Ashok Subron. This party put forward candidates at previous
elections and, through civil disobedience, its candidates wilfully refused to
select either a way of life community or the residual community under the
electoral laws, which resulted in their candidacies being rejected. They took
the matter to court all the way to the Privy Council which threw out their case
since they were trying to challenge the constitution through the backdoor.
However, the Privy Council Judges advised that if the party wanted to challenge
the Constitution, it should do so before the Supreme Court first. So, Rezistans
ek Alternativ lodged a case against the government to have BLS declared
unconstitutional. But this does not mean that the Supreme Court or the Privy
Council would agree. The BLS is perfectly legal and has been so for the last 50
years. A candidate who does not wish to identify himself/herself as Hindu,
Muslim or Sino-Mauritian by way of life can easily choose the residual category
General Population where way of life does not apply. One therefore wonders what
the case of Rezistans ek Alternativ is all about if not a propaganda attempt to
feed the anti-BLS movement. Their case looks like an abuse of the process of
the court to bring political pressure to bear on government.
Conclusion
Minority
Protection in the form of BLS is rightly enshrined in the Mauritian Constitution.
The UN Charter includes Minority Rights and strives to ensure that their rights
are protected. As such, those minorities have to be identified and recognised
by law. For this system to be fair, Mauritius has to update its census figures
every 10 years rather than rely on an outdated 1972 census figures. Minority
protection is the duty of government. This duty cannot be shifted to
corruptible political parties with equally corruptible party lists. The BLS was
the safeguard agreed by all political parties which paved the way to
independence and the Hindu majority, in whose favour the First Past The Post (FPTP) system is skewed, has no right to remove this
minority protection as it undermines both the country’s independence and its
Constitution. There are other safeguards in the Mauritian Constitution which
cannot be removed, such as the right to liberty, to freedom of association, to
freedom of religious belief.
M Rafic
Soormally
London
18 September
2018
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